Global summary

Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively (see Methods for further explanation).

Using data available up to the: 2020-05-20

Note that it takes time for infection to cause symptoms, to get tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection, for a positive test to return and ultimately to enter the case data presented here. In other words, today’s case data are only informative of new infections about two weeks ago. This is reflected in the plots below, which are by date of infection.

Expected daily confirmed cases by country

Figure 1: The results of the latest reproduction number estimates (based on estimated confirmed cases with a date of infection on the 2020-05-10) can be summarised by whether confirmed cases are likely increasing or decreasing. This represents the strength of the evidence that the reproduction number in each region is greater than or less than 1, respectively (see the methods for details). Countries with fewer than 60 confirmed cases reported on a single day are not included in the analysis (light grey) as there is not enough data to reliably estimate the reproduction number.

Summary of latest reproduction number and confirmed case count estimates by date of infection

Figure 1: Confirmed cases with date of infection on the 2020-05-10 and the time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light bar = 90% credible interval; dark bar = the 50% credible interval.). Regions are ordered by the number of expected daily confirmed cases and shaded based on the expected change in daily confirmedcases. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control and a single case required for elimination.

Reproduction numbers over time in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases

Figure 2: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-05-10 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases

Figure 3: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-05-10 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Reproduction numbers over time in all regions

Figure 4: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-05-10 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in all regions

Figure 5: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-05-10 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Latest estimates (as of the 2020-05-10)

Table 1: Latest estimates (as of the 2020-05-10) of the number of confirmed cases by date of infection, the effective reproduction number, and the doubling time (when negative this corresponds to the halving time) in each region. The mean and 90% credible interval is shown.

Country	New confirmed cases by infection date	Expected change in daily cases	Effective reproduction no.	Doubling/halving time (days)
Afghanistan	360 (325 – 392)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.2)	22 (13 – 74)
Algeria	194 (165 – 218)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.2)	82 (19 – -34)
Argentina	325 (288 – 360)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.3)	16 (10 – 35)
Armenia	226 (191 – 255)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.4)	13 (8.2 – 28)
Australia	23 (8 – 36)	Unsure	1.2 (0.7 – 1.6)	18 (4.6 – -9)
Austria	51 (35 – 64)	Unsure	1.1 (0.9 – 1.3)	34 (8.9 – -19)
Azerbaijan	121 (84 – 150)	Likely increasing	1.1 (0.9 – 1.3)	23 (9 – -39)
Bahrain	274 (242 – 303)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.1)	150 (24 – -35)
Bangladesh	1369 (1140 – 1557)	Increasing	1.3 (1.2 – 1.3)	11 (9.2 – 15)
Belarus	1077 (940 – 1220)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.2)	30 (18 – 100)
Belgium	353 (295 – 403)	Likely decreasing	0.9 (0.8 – 1)	-30 (300 – -14)
Benin	27 (10 – 38)	Unsure	1.1 (0.7 – 1.5)	27 (5.9 – -11)
Bolivia	222 (191 – 249)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.2)	25 (12 – -1200)
Bosnia and Herzegovina	32 (16 – 45)	Unsure	1 (0.7 – 1.4)	56 (6.9 – -8.9)
Brazil	13854 (12123 – 15564)	Increasing	1.2 (1.2 – 1.3)	14 (11 – 18)
Bulgaria	46 (27 – 61)	Unsure	1 (0.8 – 1.3)	350 (9.2 – -9.5)
Cameroon	141 (115 – 164)	Increasing	1.3 (1.1 – 1.5)	9.1 (6 – 19)
Canada	1310 (1142 – 1469)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.1)	130 (29 – -56)
Central African Republic	37 (15 – 56)	Likely increasing	1.4 (1 – 1.9)	8.4 (3.9 – -49)
Chad	36 (18 – 51)	Unsure	1.2 (0.8 – 1.5)	22 (5.9 – -12)
Chile	2570 (2222 – 2883)	Increasing	1.3 (1.2 – 1.3)	11 (9.3 – 13)
China	11 (3 – 16)	Unsure	1.3 (0.7 – 1.8)	12 (3.5 – -8.9)
Colombia	761 (653 – 859)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.3)	16 (11 – 25)
Cote dIvoire	59 (36 – 78)	Unsure	1.1 (0.8 – 1.3)	54 (9.3 – -14)
Croatia	17 (1 – 36)	Unsure	1.2 (0.4 – 2)	170 (3.4 – -3.6)
Cuba	22 (7 – 34)	Unsure	1.1 (0.6 – 1.5)	24 (4.8 – -7.8)
Czechia	65 (46 – 79)	Likely increasing	1.1 (0.9 – 1.4)	19 (7.6 – -34)
Democratic Republic of the Congo	84 (64 – 101)	Increasing	1.2 (1 – 1.4)	17 (7.9 – -92)
Denmark	75 (56 – 91)	Likely decreasing	0.9 (0.7 – 1)	-16 (220 – -7.8)
Djibouti	54 (34 – 69)	Increasing	1.5 (1.1 – 1.8)	6.6 (4 – 18)
Dominican Republic	360 (292 – 427)	Likely increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.2)	52 (17 – -50)
Ecuador	643 (534 – 737)	Increasing	1.2 (1 – 1.3)	11 (7.6 – 21)
Egypt	512 (431 – 600)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.2)	23 (13 – 130)
El Salvador	65 (45 – 81)	Unsure	1 (0.8 – 1.2)	270 (12 – -14)
Equatorial Guinea	45 (30 – 59)	Increasing	1.5 (1.1 – 1.9)	5.9 (3.6 – 17)
Estonia	13 (2 – 22)	Likely increasing	1.4 (0.7 – 2.1)	7.8 (2.7 – -8)
Finland	67 (45 – 87)	Unsure	0.9 (0.7 – 1.1)	-28 (21 – -8.1)
France	513 (454 – 579)	Decreasing	0.8 (0.7 – 1)	-10 (-26 – -6.3)
Gabon	93 (72 – 109)	Likely increasing	1.1 (0.9 – 1.3)	24 (9.6 – -46)
Germany	720 (633 – 786)	Decreasing	0.9 (0.9 – 1)	-31 (-170 – -17)
Ghana	215 (175 – 244)	Likely decreasing	0.9 (0.8 – 1)	-19 (-140 – -10)
Greece	28 (10 – 44)	Likely increasing	1.3 (0.8 – 1.8)	9.9 (3.7 – -16)
Guatemala	133 (105 – 154)	Increasing	1.3 (1.1 – 1.4)	12 (7 – 39)
Guinea	92 (72 – 107)	Likely increasing	1.1 (0.9 – 1.3)	26 (10 – -43)
Guinea Bissau	44 (28 – 57)	Unsure	1 (0.8 – 1.2)	-38 (15 – -8.3)
Haiti	60 (42 – 78)	Increasing	1.5 (1.2 – 1.9)	6 (3.9 – 13)
Honduras	119 (96 – 137)	Unsure	1.1 (0.9 – 1.2)	110 (15 – -21)
Hungary	43 (26 – 60)	Unsure	1.1 (0.8 – 1.3)	32 (7.2 – -13)
Iceland	120067 (0 – 662)	Likely increasing	302.3 (0 – 12.1)	0.0014 (0.49 – -1.8)
India	5090 (4448 – 5859)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.3)	15 (12 – 21)
Indonesia	588 (501 – 672)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.3)	16 (11 – 28)
Iran	2189 (1891 – 2496)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.3)	16 (12 – 23)
Iraq	112 (89 – 131)	Increasing	1.2 (1 – 1.3)	16 (8.2 – 190)
Ireland	166 (137 – 191)	Likely decreasing	0.9 (0.8 – 1)	-51 (42 – -16)
Israel	19 (11 – 27)	Likely decreasing	0.7 (0.4 – 1)	-9.9 (48 – -4.5)
Italy	900 (808 – 984)	Decreasing	0.9 (0.8 – 1)	-31 (-100 – -18)
Japan	72 (53 – 87)	Likely decreasing	0.8 (0.7 – 1)	-26 (38 – -9.5)
Kazakhstan	243 (209 – 275)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.3)	14 (8.8 – 37)
Kosovo	18 (5 – 30)	Likely increasing	1.3 (0.7 – 1.9)	7.6 (3.1 – -15)
Kuwait	1031 (891 – 1172)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.3)	12 (9.4 – 16)
Kyrgyzstan	40 (23 – 55)	Likely increasing	1.2 (0.9 – 1.6)	15 (5.5 – -20)
Latvia	23 (7 – 37)	Likely increasing	1.5 (0.9 – 2.2)	5.8 (2.7 – -31)
Lebanon	17 (7 – 27)	Unsure	1.1 (0.6 – 1.6)	200 (5.7 – -5.7)
Lithuania	18 (4 – 31)	Unsure	1.3 (0.7 – 1.8)	13 (3.6 – -8.3)
Luxembourg	19 (4 – 30)	Likely increasing	1.4 (0.8 – 2.1)	7.7 (2.9 – -11)
Malaysia	38 (25 – 53)	Likely decreasing	0.9 (0.7 – 1.1)	-21 (20 – -6.8)
Maldives	42 (21 – 59)	Unsure	1 (0.7 – 1.2)	-35 (13 – -7.3)
Mexico	2482 (2156 – 2807)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.3)	16 (12 – 23)
Moldova	158 (126 – 181)	Likely increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.2)	27 (11 – -72)
Mongolia	31 (12 – 51)	Increasing	2.1 (1.3 – 2.9)	3.1 (2 – 7.4)
Morocco	103 (78 – 122)	Decreasing	0.8 (0.7 – 1)	-13 (-61 – -7.5)
Nepal	36 (21 – 49)	Increasing	1.4 (1 – 1.7)	8.2 (4.3 – 150)
Netherlands	213 (177 – 247)	Likely decreasing	0.9 (0.8 – 1)	-26 (300 – -12)
New Zealand	138 (0 – 25)	Likely increasing	2.9 (0.4 – 3.7)	4 (1.3 – -6.3)
Niger	19 (5 – 31)	Unsure	1.2 (0.7 – 1.8)	16 (4.1 – -7.7)
Nigeria	241 (207 – 269)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.1)	-96 (34 – -20)
North Macedonia	30 (16 – 43)	Likely increasing	1.2 (0.8 – 1.5)	19 (5.4 – -13)
Norway	24 (12 – 34)	Unsure	0.9 (0.6 – 1.3)	-20 (11 – -5.3)
Oman	266 (233 – 295)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.4)	14 (8.6 – 32)
Pakistan	1891 (1636 – 2133)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.2)	28 (18 – 74)
Palestine	10 (1 – 19)	Likely increasing	1.8 (0.5 – 3)	3.4 (1.6 – -15)
Panama	163 (134 – 184)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.1)	-76 (32 – -17)
Paraguay	21 (5 – 35)	Likely decreasing	0.8 (0.3 – 1.1)	-6.5 (32 – -3)
Peru	4072 (3600 – 4524)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.2)	20 (15 – 32)
Philippines	260 (218 – 298)	Likely increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.2)	35 (15 – -100)
Poland	393 (337 – 449)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.2)	34 (16 – -590)
Portugal	242 (203 – 287)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.1)	-34 (45 – -12)
Puerto Rico	73 (49 – 89)	Unsure	1.1 (0.9 – 1.3)	26 (8.6 – -26)
Qatar	1656 (1434 – 1853)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.3)	15 (12 – 21)
Romania	236 (195 – 272)	Unsure	0.9 (0.8 – 1.1)	-39 (57 – -15)
Russia	11185 (9996 – 12333)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.1)	74 (36 – -1200)
Saudi Arabia	2735 (2331 – 3095)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.3)	14 (11 – 18)
Senegal	98 (72 – 120)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.2)	100 (14 – -19)
Serbia	90 (66 – 111)	Unsure	1 (0.8 – 1.2)	46 (11 – -20)
Singapore	691 (615 – 759)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.1)	-490 (48 – -40)
Slovakia	19 (2 – 35)	Likely increasing	1.6 (0.6 – 2.5)	5.5 (2.2 – -9.3)
Somalia	57 (37 – 75)	Unsure	1.1 (0.9 – 1.3)	40 (9.1 – -16)
South Africa	966 (821 – 1126)	Increasing	1.3 (1.2 – 1.4)	10 (8.3 – 14)
South Korea	24 (15 – 33)	Unsure	1.1 (0.8 – 1.4)	40 (6.9 – -11)
Spain	647 (574 – 715)	Decreasing	0.8 (0.7 – 0.9)	-12 (-20 – -8.9)
Sri Lanka	25 (10 – 38)	Unsure	1.2 (0.8 – 1.6)	16 (4.6 – -11)
Sudan	172 (140 – 196)	Increasing	1.2 (1 – 1.3)	19 (10 – 170)
Sweden	557 (499 – 627)	Unsure	1 (1 – 1.1)	640 (36 – -42)
Switzerland	41 (27 – 52)	Likely decreasing	0.9 (0.7 – 1.1)	-27 (21 – -8.1)
Thailand	16 (0 – 29)	Unsure	1.6 (0.5 – 2.8)	6 (1.9 – -5.2)
Tunisia	10 (0 – 19)	Likely increasing	1.9 (0.5 – 3.4)	3.4 (1.4 – -7.5)
Turkey	1691 (1510 – 1894)	Unsure	1 (1 – 1.1)	180 (35 – -58)
Ukraine	486 (415 – 551)	Likely increasing	1 (1 – 1.1)	77 (22 – -58)
United Arab Emirates	866 (744 – 992)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.2)	17 (12 – 28)
United Kingdom	3787 (3410 – 4228)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1)	-57 (150 – -24)
United Republic of Tanzania	12 (3 – 20)	Likely decreasing	0.7 (0.3 – 1.1)	-7.4 (24 – -3.2)
United States of America	25825 (23243 – 28926)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.1)	50 (26 – 770)
Uruguay	27 (21 – 33)	Increasing	1.8 (1.4 – 2.4)	5.7 (3.7 – 11)
Uzbekistan	48 (31 – 63)	Unsure	1 (0.8 – 1.2)	-2100 (11 – -11)
Venezuela	39 (22 – 51)	Increasing	1.6 (1.2 – 2)	5.1 (3.1 – 13)
Zambia	70 (45 – 87)	Likely increasing	1.2 (0.9 – 1.5)	14 (6.4 – -100)