Global summary

Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively (see Methods for further explanation).

Using data available up to the: 2020-05-20

Note that it takes time for infection to cause symptoms, to get tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection, for a positive test to return and ultimately to enter the case data presented here. In other words, today’s case data are only informative of new infections about two weeks ago. This is reflected in the plots below, which are by date of infection.

Expected daily confirmed cases by country


Figure 1: The results of the latest reproduction number estimates (based on estimated confirmed cases with a date of infection on the 2020-05-10) can be summarised by whether confirmed cases are likely increasing or decreasing. This represents the strength of the evidence that the reproduction number in each region is greater than or less than 1, respectively (see the methods for details). Countries with fewer than 60 confirmed cases reported on a single day are not included in the analysis (light grey) as there is not enough data to reliably estimate the reproduction number.

Summary of latest reproduction number and confirmed case count estimates by date of infection


Figure 1: Confirmed cases with date of infection on the 2020-05-10 and the time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light bar = 90% credible interval; dark bar = the 50% credible interval.). Regions are ordered by the number of expected daily confirmed cases and shaded based on the expected change in daily confirmedcases. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control and a single case required for elimination.

Reproduction numbers over time in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases


Figure 2: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-05-10 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases


Figure 3: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-05-10 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Reproduction numbers over time in all regions


Figure 4: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-05-10 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in all regions

Figure 5: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-05-10 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Latest estimates (as of the 2020-05-10)

Table 1: Latest estimates (as of the 2020-05-10) of the number of confirmed cases by date of infection, the effective reproduction number, and the doubling time (when negative this corresponds to the halving time) in each region. The mean and 90% credible interval is shown.
Country New confirmed cases by infection date Expected change in daily cases Effective reproduction no. Doubling/halving time (days)
Afghanistan 360 (325 – 392) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 22 (13 – 74)
Algeria 194 (165 – 218) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.2) 82 (19 – -34)
Argentina 325 (288 – 360) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 16 (10 – 35)
Armenia 226 (191 – 255) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.4) 13 (8.2 – 28)
Australia 23 (8 – 36) Unsure 1.2 (0.7 – 1.6) 18 (4.6 – -9)
Austria 51 (35 – 64) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.3) 34 (8.9 – -19)
Azerbaijan 121 (84 – 150) Likely increasing 1.1 (0.9 – 1.3) 23 (9 – -39)
Bahrain 274 (242 – 303) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) 150 (24 – -35)
Bangladesh 1369 (1140 – 1557) Increasing 1.3 (1.2 – 1.3) 11 (9.2 – 15)
Belarus 1077 (940 – 1220) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 30 (18 – 100)
Belgium 353 (295 – 403) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -30 (300 – -14)
Benin 27 (10 – 38) Unsure 1.1 (0.7 – 1.5) 27 (5.9 – -11)
Bolivia 222 (191 – 249) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 25 (12 – -1200)
Bosnia and Herzegovina 32 (16 – 45) Unsure 1 (0.7 – 1.4) 56 (6.9 – -8.9)
Brazil 13854 (12123 – 15564) Increasing 1.2 (1.2 – 1.3) 14 (11 – 18)
Bulgaria 46 (27 – 61) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.3) 350 (9.2 – -9.5)
Cameroon 141 (115 – 164) Increasing 1.3 (1.1 – 1.5) 9.1 (6 – 19)
Canada 1310 (1142 – 1469) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) 130 (29 – -56)
Central African Republic 37 (15 – 56) Likely increasing 1.4 (1 – 1.9) 8.4 (3.9 – -49)
Chad 36 (18 – 51) Unsure 1.2 (0.8 – 1.5) 22 (5.9 – -12)
Chile 2570 (2222 – 2883) Increasing 1.3 (1.2 – 1.3) 11 (9.3 – 13)
China 11 (3 – 16) Unsure 1.3 (0.7 – 1.8) 12 (3.5 – -8.9)
Colombia 761 (653 – 859) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 16 (11 – 25)
Cote dIvoire 59 (36 – 78) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.3) 54 (9.3 – -14)
Croatia 17 (1 – 36) Unsure 1.2 (0.4 – 2) 170 (3.4 – -3.6)
Cuba 22 (7 – 34) Unsure 1.1 (0.6 – 1.5) 24 (4.8 – -7.8)
Czechia 65 (46 – 79) Likely increasing 1.1 (0.9 – 1.4) 19 (7.6 – -34)
Democratic Republic of the Congo 84 (64 – 101) Increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.4) 17 (7.9 – -92)
Denmark 75 (56 – 91) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.7 – 1) -16 (220 – -7.8)
Djibouti 54 (34 – 69) Increasing 1.5 (1.1 – 1.8) 6.6 (4 – 18)
Dominican Republic 360 (292 – 427) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 52 (17 – -50)
Ecuador 643 (534 – 737) Increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.3) 11 (7.6 – 21)
Egypt 512 (431 – 600) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 23 (13 – 130)
El Salvador 65 (45 – 81) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.2) 270 (12 – -14)
Equatorial Guinea 45 (30 – 59) Increasing 1.5 (1.1 – 1.9) 5.9 (3.6 – 17)
Estonia 13 (2 – 22) Likely increasing 1.4 (0.7 – 2.1) 7.8 (2.7 – -8)
Finland 67 (45 – 87) Unsure 0.9 (0.7 – 1.1) -28 (21 – -8.1)
France 513 (454 – 579) Decreasing 0.8 (0.7 – 1) -10 (-26 – -6.3)
Gabon 93 (72 – 109) Likely increasing 1.1 (0.9 – 1.3) 24 (9.6 – -46)
Germany 720 (633 – 786) Decreasing 0.9 (0.9 – 1) -31 (-170 – -17)
Ghana 215 (175 – 244) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -19 (-140 – -10)
Greece 28 (10 – 44) Likely increasing 1.3 (0.8 – 1.8) 9.9 (3.7 – -16)
Guatemala 133 (105 – 154) Increasing 1.3 (1.1 – 1.4) 12 (7 – 39)
Guinea 92 (72 – 107) Likely increasing 1.1 (0.9 – 1.3) 26 (10 – -43)
Guinea Bissau 44 (28 – 57) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.2) -38 (15 – -8.3)
Haiti 60 (42 – 78) Increasing 1.5 (1.2 – 1.9) 6 (3.9 – 13)
Honduras 119 (96 – 137) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.2) 110 (15 – -21)
Hungary 43 (26 – 60) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.3) 32 (7.2 – -13)
Iceland 120067 (0 – 662) Likely increasing 302.3 (0 – 12.1) 0.0014 (0.49 – -1.8)
India 5090 (4448 – 5859) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 15 (12 – 21)
Indonesia 588 (501 – 672) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 16 (11 – 28)
Iran 2189 (1891 – 2496) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 16 (12 – 23)
Iraq 112 (89 – 131) Increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.3) 16 (8.2 – 190)
Ireland 166 (137 – 191) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -51 (42 – -16)
Israel 19 (11 – 27) Likely decreasing 0.7 (0.4 – 1) -9.9 (48 – -4.5)
Italy 900 (808 – 984) Decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -31 (-100 – -18)
Japan 72 (53 – 87) Likely decreasing 0.8 (0.7 – 1) -26 (38 – -9.5)
Kazakhstan 243 (209 – 275) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 14 (8.8 – 37)
Kosovo 18 (5 – 30) Likely increasing 1.3 (0.7 – 1.9) 7.6 (3.1 – -15)
Kuwait 1031 (891 – 1172) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 12 (9.4 – 16)
Kyrgyzstan 40 (23 – 55) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.9 – 1.6) 15 (5.5 – -20)
Latvia 23 (7 – 37) Likely increasing 1.5 (0.9 – 2.2) 5.8 (2.7 – -31)
Lebanon 17 (7 – 27) Unsure 1.1 (0.6 – 1.6) 200 (5.7 – -5.7)
Lithuania 18 (4 – 31) Unsure 1.3 (0.7 – 1.8) 13 (3.6 – -8.3)
Luxembourg 19 (4 – 30) Likely increasing 1.4 (0.8 – 2.1) 7.7 (2.9 – -11)
Malaysia 38 (25 – 53) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.7 – 1.1) -21 (20 – -6.8)
Maldives 42 (21 – 59) Unsure 1 (0.7 – 1.2) -35 (13 – -7.3)
Mexico 2482 (2156 – 2807) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 16 (12 – 23)
Moldova 158 (126 – 181) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 27 (11 – -72)
Mongolia 31 (12 – 51) Increasing 2.1 (1.3 – 2.9) 3.1 (2 – 7.4)
Morocco 103 (78 – 122) Decreasing 0.8 (0.7 – 1) -13 (-61 – -7.5)
Nepal 36 (21 – 49) Increasing 1.4 (1 – 1.7) 8.2 (4.3 – 150)
Netherlands 213 (177 – 247) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -26 (300 – -12)
New Zealand 138 (0 – 25) Likely increasing 2.9 (0.4 – 3.7) 4 (1.3 – -6.3)
Niger 19 (5 – 31) Unsure 1.2 (0.7 – 1.8) 16 (4.1 – -7.7)
Nigeria 241 (207 – 269) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) -96 (34 – -20)
North Macedonia 30 (16 – 43) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.8 – 1.5) 19 (5.4 – -13)
Norway 24 (12 – 34) Unsure 0.9 (0.6 – 1.3) -20 (11 – -5.3)
Oman 266 (233 – 295) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.4) 14 (8.6 – 32)
Pakistan 1891 (1636 – 2133) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 28 (18 – 74)
Palestine 10 (1 – 19) Likely increasing 1.8 (0.5 – 3) 3.4 (1.6 – -15)
Panama 163 (134 – 184) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) -76 (32 – -17)
Paraguay 21 (5 – 35) Likely decreasing 0.8 (0.3 – 1.1) -6.5 (32 – -3)
Peru 4072 (3600 – 4524) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.2) 20 (15 – 32)
Philippines 260 (218 – 298) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 35 (15 – -100)
Poland 393 (337 – 449) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 34 (16 – -590)
Portugal 242 (203 – 287) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) -34 (45 – -12)
Puerto Rico 73 (49 – 89) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.3) 26 (8.6 – -26)
Qatar 1656 (1434 – 1853) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 15 (12 – 21)
Romania 236 (195 – 272) Unsure 0.9 (0.8 – 1.1) -39 (57 – -15)
Russia 11185 (9996 – 12333) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.1) 74 (36 – -1200)
Saudi Arabia 2735 (2331 – 3095) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 14 (11 – 18)
Senegal 98 (72 – 120) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.2) 100 (14 – -19)
Serbia 90 (66 – 111) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.2) 46 (11 – -20)
Singapore 691 (615 – 759) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) -490 (48 – -40)
Slovakia 19 (2 – 35) Likely increasing 1.6 (0.6 – 2.5) 5.5 (2.2 – -9.3)
Somalia 57 (37 – 75) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.3) 40 (9.1 – -16)
South Africa 966 (821 – 1126) Increasing 1.3 (1.2 – 1.4) 10 (8.3 – 14)
South Korea 24 (15 – 33) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.4) 40 (6.9 – -11)
Spain 647 (574 – 715) Decreasing 0.8 (0.7 – 0.9) -12 (-20 – -8.9)
Sri Lanka 25 (10 – 38) Unsure 1.2 (0.8 – 1.6) 16 (4.6 – -11)
Sudan 172 (140 – 196) Increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.3) 19 (10 – 170)
Sweden 557 (499 – 627) Unsure 1 (1 – 1.1) 640 (36 – -42)
Switzerland 41 (27 – 52) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.7 – 1.1) -27 (21 – -8.1)
Thailand 16 (0 – 29) Unsure 1.6 (0.5 – 2.8) 6 (1.9 – -5.2)
Tunisia 10 (0 – 19) Likely increasing 1.9 (0.5 – 3.4) 3.4 (1.4 – -7.5)
Turkey 1691 (1510 – 1894) Unsure 1 (1 – 1.1) 180 (35 – -58)
Ukraine 486 (415 – 551) Likely increasing 1 (1 – 1.1) 77 (22 – -58)
United Arab Emirates 866 (744 – 992) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.2) 17 (12 – 28)
United Kingdom 3787 (3410 – 4228) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1) -57 (150 – -24)
United Republic of Tanzania 12 (3 – 20) Likely decreasing 0.7 (0.3 – 1.1) -7.4 (24 – -3.2)
United States of America 25825 (23243 – 28926) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.1) 50 (26 – 770)
Uruguay 27 (21 – 33) Increasing 1.8 (1.4 – 2.4) 5.7 (3.7 – 11)
Uzbekistan 48 (31 – 63) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.2) -2100 (11 – -11)
Venezuela 39 (22 – 51) Increasing 1.6 (1.2 – 2) 5.1 (3.1 – 13)
Zambia 70 (45 – 87) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.9 – 1.5) 14 (6.4 – -100)